One of the things the Democrat national party and state party are stressing this election is a return to more old school personal contact with voters. The theory is based on a couple things. First, people are more likely to listen to their friends and neighbors about candidates than paid shills, college kids, or robocalls.
Second, going old school is being necessitated because while people use technology to be more connected, it's to be more connected with people they already know and like. Conversely, technology also makes it possible to thwart those who want to contact you who don't personally know you.
Exhibit A is the cell phone. In fact, another blogger-Media Nation-projected this "problem" for Barack Obama back in October.
Cell phones display the number calling you. If you don't know the number or it says "unknown," you won't pick up. Many people, particularly those under 30 no longer have a land line but only a cell phone. And guess what, cell phones aren't listed in phone directories. The numbers are difficult to obtain as far as I know.
So, I was thinking...
Besides Hillary Clinton obviously working like a maniac and finally starting to act like a real human being during the New Hampshire Primary campaign, did pollsters get flummoxed by the move away from land lines and towards cell phones? If you can't use cell phone numbers to find likely voters and those likely voters, who probably skew younger aren't measured, I'd think your final results would be screwed up.
I'm no pollster or statistics expert. I went to law school largely because there was little math involved.
I'd be interested in hearing from the mathematics, polling, and statistical experts out there to test my theory-or at least comment on it. Even you political scientists and operatives can comment but what I'd like to hear about is whether cell phones are taken into account as a variable in polling and how this variable is handled.
Todd D. Epp, South Dakota Watch, http://www.southdakotawatch.net
Source: www.ezinearticles.com
